April 9, 2020

Kruzan Reflects on ‘Staying in Place’ as a Child in the 1960’s

Hi all,

I hope this letter finds you safe and healthy. Crazy, interesting and scary times! Never in my entire life would I have thought the nation would be essentially sequestered, forcing our economy to slowly grind to a near halt. As a child in elementary school during the 1960’s we would practice what to do in the event of a nuclear attack from the Soviets. We would drill being mustered single file into a shelter beneath our school, there we were told to ‘stay in place’ until our parents came for us apparently after a bombing? We would know when it was safe to venture out with the ‘all clear’ blast of a local siren. As an adult looking back to those Civil Defense drills, I have a hard time believing that was THE PLAN. I mean, how would parents survive a real nuclear attack to eventually fetch us? I don’t remember any kind of shelter beneath our home, nor at my dad’s place of work. In a period of concern and stress, doing something, practicing something, was better than not doing anything and feeling powerless.

Today, it feels like we are under attack and once again being forced to ‘stay in place’. This time the fear isn’t nuclear warheads raining down from the skies but a microscopic virus. The solution is also different. Gone are the tightly crammed rows of first and second graders assembling under our school and instead, we are told to practice social distancing and are ordered to ‘stay in place’. Different times call for different measures.

But much like 50 years ago when doing something, regardless how small, felt like a contribution and a stand against our vulnerabilities, today we can do the same – call a friend, text a relative, video chat family, be social, keep in touch, but keep your distance! Some of us have work to be done, others closets to be cleaned, garages to be organized, and more. Let’s all take a moment to talk to someone close or better yet, to listen. The world today is a less busy place. Enjoy the simplicity while it lasts.

Regards,

Jim

P.S. Times are scary, but we don’t have to be scared! Here are a few thoughts…

  • The nation has dealt with this before. Sadly, the expected death toll in the U.S. from COVID-19 is expected to be between 100-200,000 victims. The U.S. has experienced similar pandemics in early 1953, late 1957, early 1960, the height of the Hong Kong Flu in 1968-69 and early 1976. All flu viruses, all with similar death tolls. Our 24-hour news services and smartphones make this time seem different.
  • At KWM, we strive to make sure client portfolios are well-balanced and flexible. While it doesn’t guarantee success, it helps during times of increased volatility and allows us to be well-positioned for any potential recovery.
  • Our Government has responded in a big way. Between monetary policy and a 2.0+ trillion-dollar fiscal stimulus the combined size of the package approximates the expected contraction in GDP. This will provide a safety net and eventually put a bottom in the market selloff.

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